The future of anime
“Welcome to the woooorld of tomorrow!”
I’ve made it no secret that I think distributing media through physical means is an archaic and rapidly shrinking trade. I sincerely believe that everything that can be digitalized will eventually be digitalized, whether you want it or not. It is a destiny that all media companies have to face and it can be an enormous opportunity for those who adapt fast.
And of course, it’s no different for anime. That’s right, it’s rant time.
Evolution
The theory of evolution has frequently been summed up by the phrase “survival of the fittest”, and indeed it is the perfect phrase to describe business models in our era of rapid technological growth. The “fittest” refers not to the strongest or the best, but the ones who can adapt and evolve to survive the next big change. Many mighty creatures had, over the millennia, fallen victim to the waves of biological revolutions in our planet’s short history, and yet the small and insignificant cockroach, whose ancestors once crawled in the shadows of dinosaurs, survives to this very day.
Today, technology has brought about such sudden but wonderful changes to our world that some of our existing frameworks which have existed for hundreds of years are starting to fail us. There will always be those who do not believe that everything they have held to be sacred truths for their lives is now change, evolving and improving for the better. Every effort will be made to build a dam around this torrent of change. At first they will succeed, but no dam can hold off the force of nature that is the power of technology. Pandora’s Box cannot be closed once it has been opened.
Okay, maybe I am getting a little too abstract here. Let us move back to anime.
Declining DVD sales in Japan
According to this ITmedia article forwarded to me by Soulshift, Japan’s DVD sales are dropping. Heck, I will agree with those people who claim that DVD sales everywhere are on the decline, even if I have yet to see conclusive evidence of it. Because it just makes sense. I for one certainly do not think that DVDs are worth their price tags, even if I do buy them for collecting purposes. I think a lot of people in the younger generations agree with me.
This is not to say that I think all media content should be free and no one should get paid for his/her works. I don’t. But I do think that the old way of doing things will not last for much longer. It has nothing to do with wanting to get things for free. I will pay for it if I have to, but the more important point is that I want it in my way, my format and at my convenience. You can air free anime on TV 24-hours a day and I won’t give a damn because I rather watch the shows I want to watch whenever I feel like watching them. Call it unreasonable if you want, but that is the kind of mindset that young people growing up with the Internet as their main source of entertainment will have. And those are the potential customers in this business.
当社のDVDが売れない最大の理由は作品の力不足だが、業界全体でもアニメDVD販売が不振だ。その原因は1つではないだろう」とGDHの内田康史副社長は言う。HDD＆DVDレコーダーの普及や、YouTubeのような動画共有サイトへの違法アップロードの影響などが、DVD不振の原因として考えられるという。
The ITmedia article interviewed GDH, the parent company of GONZO, and according to them, the main reasons why DVD sales are dropping in Japan are because of the spread of HDD and DVD recorders and the popularity of video streaming sites such as YouTube. You can whine and cry all you want, but that is not going to make technology reverse itself and uninvent things that are inconvenient for your business.
And not everything can be solved through legislation either. Sure, you can waste spend money to hire a bunch of people who sit around and do nothing but send out takedown letters to YouTube, but are you then going to lobby for a law that bans people from recording TV shows with DVD recorders too? It is just not possible. And it should be noted that P2P filesharing is not even a blip on Japan’s radar. I know very few Japanese fans who have heard of, much less utilize, BitTorrent.
Old distribution model, new market paradigm
「当社がアニメDVDを海外展開する場合、字幕や音声、パッケージなどを海外仕様に作り変える時間が必要で、どうしても日本よりも後の発売になってしまう。このタイムラグのせいでビジネスチャンスを逃している面はある」
The same GDH representative goes on to say, “When we release our products overseas, it takes time to translate, dub and repackage, so the releases always end up being slower than in Japan. This time lag often results in many business opportunities being lost.”
I think this is a clear indication that they are slowly realizing the fact that the old system is showing its age. Foreign audiences are no longer contented to get slow and outdated releases. If they cannot get the series they want legally and fast, they will turn to the Internet. Illegal or not, the Internet is there and will always be there. Deal with it. The best way to go about solving this problem is obviously to cater to the global audience right from the start, instead of trying to pretend that regional markets are still clearly defined and segregated like they were twenty years ago.
The blame game
ただ“犯人探し”に躍起になるだけでは、次のビジネスは生まれない。「時代とともにメディアは移り変わるもの。最も多くの人に視聴してもらえ、お金を払ってもらえる可能性が高いメディアを試し、ビジネスを切り開く必要がある」
The best quote: “Just searching for the ‘criminals’ is not going to do any good. It will not create any new business opportunities. Media has to change with time. There is a need for us to try out formats that bring us the greatest viewership and increase our opportunities to make money. We need to open up our business.” Exactly what I want to say. GDH has created a YouTube channel called “GONZO DOOGA” and is asking YouTube not to remove content that infringes on GONZO’s copyrights as long as they can serve as promotional material.
The same article goes on to say that illegal downloading has, ironically, proven a global demand for anime. What needs to be done is not to destroy this demand by isolating potential customers and calling them pirates. The content owners need to re-examine their business strategies and find out ways to tap into that newly-generated demand using the technology that enabled it all to happen: the Internet. Indeed, the GDH representative acknowledges the fact that illegal sites that charge users monthly fees to download anime are very popular overseas and that GDH sees it as a huge business opportunity waiting to be tapped in its quest to expand globally.
Online distribution
That brings me back to Odex. Some people think that I am against Video-On-Demand. That is not true. I am an fervent supporter of digital media distribution that actually achieves its true intention—being convenient. In fact, when I first suggested VOD to Mr. Peter Go many months ago, he was unreceptive to the idea. I am happy that a small step has now been taken in that direction, but it is really small indeed. And the way Odex has sequenced its actions certainly has not helped to bring about much enthusiasm for the minute change.
I mean, it simply makes no business sense to assume that the tech-savvy downloaders are an insignificant minority, provoke them into a frenzy, and then roll out a service that is targeted right at the very same group of people while pretending nothing happened. But of course the people at Odex know what they are doing because they did their market research, right? I sure hope they do.
Conclusions
It doesn’t matter how good DVD sales were in the past. It doesn’t matter how well the system used to work. I see only the future and I think the future will only get brighter for anime. But not for DVDs. Filesharing will not kill anything that is really important and has real purposes, it is simply a new paradigm that will serve to weed out the unevolved dinosaurs that fed on past inefficiencies in the system and profited disproportionately off the physical bottlenecks of old technology that no longer exist. It may make sense for most people to pay for movies on DVDs today, but a new system replacing it will soon emerge to reward creativity in a new and better way, just as a different incentive system used to exist before the invention of the video cassette.
The ones who get to the new winning formula first will reap the most benefits. And I’m glad to learn that the Japanese studios are at least putting some thought into this. Perhaps one day we will pay $30 a month to download and watch all the anime series we want. A guy can dream…
September 5th, 2007 at 10:14 pm
ah… my previous post flagged with stars and stripes but it should be sun with the white background (means I am Japanese)
anyway, I am a BIG Gundam original fan and for that reason, I fully understand Sunrise claim.
Quote from loltehnos>
This is just *fan* created stuff, let alone uploading of their images and so on. Of course people still make loads of it - but it’s this sort of thing which is why Japanese fanartists are so paranoid it seems bizarre (strict no-linking rule, very protective over their art, etc.)
September 5th, 2007 at 10:16 pm
as I am Gundammer, I fully understand this. I am so glad to hear that my fellow Gundammers are taking “strict no-linking rule, very protective over their art” as their own rule.
Because I don’t want Sunrise to stop making another Gundam stories. If any of Gundammer’s action could stop Sunrise to do their job, it’s no good for us too. Without Sunrise, we have no way to enjoy Gundam stories anyway so I think Sunrise deserve this strong position to be offensive to their “fans who doesn’t care copyright that much”.
I don’t welcome such attitude but I understand there is no other way than to control their copyright a bit harder at this moment, we are still in the middle of transition (internet and all these technology assosiate with anime and intelectual properties) and nobody’s sure tomorrow yet.
しょうがないと思います。
September 5th, 2007 at 11:36 pm
あのね、DarkMirageさんが言いたがるのはいくら大きなアニメ会社でもこの移り行く時代の流れに乗らなきゃだめだということだ。Sunriseがこんなことをするのが自分にとって何の利益も得られず、損傷も避けられません。しいて言っても、ただファンたちを怒らせるだけだ（あなたはたもかく）。
これこそが革命だ。インターネットの栄えによる革命である。新時代の若者としては、それを受け入れなければならんということだ。古い考え方はもう通用しないのだから、アニメ会社もそろそろ対応するべきだ。
わたくしは一応ドラマに移ることにします。ちなみに、「華麗なる一族」はすごく面白いですよ。ぜひご覧ください。
September 6th, 2007 at 12:27 am
blauereiter:
I guess physical media will always (at least for our generation) have the “collector’s value” and indeed that’s what many of us anime fans buy them for. But even now they are pretty useless if you want to watch the latest episodes available.
What I’m saying is that it’s not good enough as the main form of distribution. In Japan, that role belongs to television broadcasts. In the rest of the world, except perhaps America, DVDs and VCDs play a much larger role as the primary distribution method, especially since most series don’t make it to TV broadcast here. That, in my opinion, is what will change eventually.
IMO, DVDs should only be for collecting the way figurines and other merchandises are. LOL.
P.S. I’m honoured to have a Sunrise CG artist commenting on my blog. XD
September 6th, 2007 at 11:04 am
to #48 Pear san
あなたの発言を読んで、何だか、「人の革新」を強行に実現させんとして負けていったネオ・ジオン軍総帥を思い出しました。私はシャア好きですけどね（苦笑）
あなたの主張も完全に理解しています。その方向にいかざるを得ない、だけど、『現在』どういうスタンスをとるかは？各会社のビジネス判断でしょう。判断を間違えてマーケットから消えざるを得なくなったとしても、それはサンライズの責任・・・ だけど、サンライズには痛い目を見た過去があります。コントロールをきちんとしなかったが故に、韓国では「ガンダム」の商標権をとれなかった。韓国司法が「ガンダムとは、もはや韓国ではロボットアニメの『一般名詞』なので、サンライズに商標権を認めない」からだそうです。（なんだそりゃ！？サンライズが無かったらガンダムなど、そもそも存在しとらんのだよ！）
似たようなエピソードは世界中で枚挙に暇がない。今、頭が痛いのはChinaですね。原作者に正当な権利保持を認めない人たちと戦う一方で、ファンの求める良質な作品を出しつづけなければ、企業として生き残れない。ディズニー型でいくか？コミケ主義で行くか？どういう選択肢をとるべきか？に正解はまだ無いのですよ。
である以上、「過去の作品に、より一層の愛着を感じるファン（つまり、CCAまでをガンダムと考える、私のようなオールドタイプ）」にとっては、将来どうなるかよりも、過去作品が品質を保って安定供給される事が大事だから、 “strict no-linking rule, very protective over their art” as their own rule.”は、良い事だと思っています。今のサンライズにとっても、私と同じオールドタイプが主流なんでしょうね、だからそういうビジネス判断になっているんだと思いますよ。
この現状に革命を起こしたい！ならば、海外アニメおたくの希望に応える事が、サンライズにとって儲かる、と思わせる理由が必要じゃないですか？それは、サンライズがすべき努力ではなく、むしろ海外アニメおたく、特に若い世代が自己革新すべき問題だと、私は思いますね。ビートルズの古の名曲「レボリューション」でジョンが言ってるのが、肝心なんだけどな。
September 6th, 2007 at 11:04 am
to #48 Pear san
Your comments reminds me of this Neo Zeon Leader who seeks “Reformation of Human Beings” but lost the game and gone, still I like Char very much though *grin*
I fully understand what you said, we gotta go to this direction in future, however, it’s Sunrise’ business to decide what stance they gonna take. Sunrise’ judgment might be wrong and they gonna be vanished from the market, who cares…. but from Sunrise point of view, they’ve learned a lesson to get lost their “privileged trademarks and copyrights” in the past as a result of South Korean judicial rulings that says “Gundam is already become Common Noun for robot cartoons in SK”….(what? do they know the fact that Gundam could not be exist without Sunrise? oh I can’t believe the judge…)
And we could find same old episodes throughout the world, and in China especially, is the pain in the neck of Sunrise. These anime companies gotta produce quality items that satisfies their fan base and to survive in the market while fighting against those cream skimmers who never ever understand the due process of law. They might have two kind of future choices; Disney type of strong copy controller, or Creative Commons/ Comic Market style that trust the participants’ good will? I don’t know which is the “correct” way for their business.
Old-type like me who only pay attentions to CCA and Old Gundam series, prioritize to keep stable supply of products than unknown future revolution, for that reason, I truly welcome this attitude to have “strict no-linking rule, very protective over their art” as their own rule.”, and I guess that current Sunrise might have same opinion because their current valuable main consumers are me kind of old types.
So, if you want a revolution, you gotta make Sunrise believe that doing this will be profitable to them too, it’s you guys and younger otaku’s responsibility not Sunrise’. I want you to listen to the music of the Beatles “Revolution”, it all covers my concern.
September 6th, 2007 at 4:52 pm
Dark Mirage -
You’re most welcome. I am first and foremost an animation lover like the rest of your readers here.
I’ve been away from Singapore for quite a few years now and so have little understanding of the anime market back home. Blogs like yours ( including a few others like RIUVA and Zero’s ) keep me up to speed on the latest happenings.
The recent events surrounding the Odex episode, in particular the anime fans ‘ refusal to back down to the powers that be have quite honestly surprised me. While the question of who is truly right or wrong is a matter of much debate, surely the solidarity displayed by the local community is an excellent indication just how fervent the anime fans in Singapore are.
September 6th, 2007 at 6:29 pm
tomoko: “I want you to listen to the music of the Beatles “Revolution”, it all covers my concern.”
Haha, I wonder how many anime fans are old enough to remember THAT song. :)
Pear: “これこそが革命だ。インターネットの栄えによる革命である。新時代の若者としては、それを受け入れなければならんということだ。古い考え方はもう通用しないのだから、アニメ会社もそろそろ対応するべきだ。”
おお、偉い！でも「革命」って言うのはちょっと激しすぎるんじゃない？
僕はね、革命より変革の方が良いと思っているけど。
September 6th, 2007 at 7:20 pm
To Darkmirage,
Your excellent writing never fail to amaze me and this entry had gave me a good overview of the things going on.
September 6th, 2007 at 8:06 pm
Yoshi san>
well well I’m already in 30s so I should have known THAT possibility. But, at the same time, the fact that these young people never know what the Beatles is, reveals some truth; young kids always seeks revolution without necessary efforts, aren’t they? Still you can learn your lesson from the history; If you want to change something, change yourself first! DIY is the startline these kids got to take, and I’m happy to support such efforts always. I don’t give a shixt to those who do not play their efforts but keep demanding all the way through. that’s what I wanted to say.
ヨシさま＞
まぁ、知らないかもですけどね、というわたくしも３０代のオールドタイプなのですが。一つ確かな事は、今も昔も、革命！とかなんとか、若い連中ってのは言ったりやったりしてましたね、ってこと。だけど、本当にやるべき行動を伴わないで、誰かにああしろこうしろ！と言う方が先に来ちゃって、結局何にもならなかったっていうね。。。これもある面の真実じゃないですか？何かを変えたいならば、その対象に変ってくれ！と注文するより先に、まず自分が変らないと行けないってことですよ。まず隗より先にはじめよってね（おー、これは中国の古典じゃないか、そんな昔から人間の行動原理はそんなに変ってない、と。ふむふむ）サンライズにあれこれ注文するより先に、あなたがたがやるべき努力があるんじゃないの？とそういう事なら、このオールドタイプは応援しますよ、と。そういう気持ちな訳です。１０代のキッズが解ってくれるかどうかは？ですが（苦笑）
September 7th, 2007 at 12:14 am
The whole conversation reminds me of how it always seems to me that it’s the Japanese fan-circles that seem to produce a lot more well-produced art and fansites than in Western fandom. Even for something that is insanely popular in the West, you’re likely to find more in Japanese fandom for a small obscure show. Seriously, I don’t know if I’m the only one who feels this way - but it just seems to me that there’s much more creative fan output over there.
This *despite* the generally upheld stance of being respective of intellectual property. Which, everyone believes, is more restrictive than supportive of creative activity in its current implementations. Or so they say.
(Question: Do they think that way because of a tradition of great creative media fandom output e.g. doujins; or do they have a great creative output because a mindset is common and promotes creativity? Personally I think it’s the former.)
Famous blogs over there will probably get flamed if they use other people’s images. Fanart search engines will drop your site in a second if you have any official images or lyrics of anything copyrighted. Even fanartists believe that they are LUCKY to be able to make fanart because the companies are just closing one eye when they could be suing them.
But over here blogs blatantly use others’ fanart and paste it without so much as a credit to dress up their posts. No need to mention blogs dedicated to downloads and entire screencap sets. The fact that AMVs featuring copyrighted music and animation get featured in major cons is bewildering to some Japanese. Then we scream because we can’t watch fansubs (which some are convinced is something we “deserve”).
amirite? :(
Surely this highlights some level of fundamental difference between the two cultures. If this sort of mindset is prevalent among anime *consumers*, what do you think the Japanese CEOs and so on are going to think? I think this “problem” of changing times has not hit Japan hard enough yet. Only the smart companies are noticing something and moving to a new mindset while observing global trends. But to others, as tomoko has said, it seems like there’s no real need to change, and after all it’s Japanese consumers first (who else was anime made for? Obviously them.) So how?
If you ask me the attitude most fans have displayed is more likely to put off Japanese companies than encourage them to develop the market here. “They’re so demanding. They’re so ungrateful. So impatient.” Correct me if I’m wrong but I think many Japanese fans would think this way if they saw this case.
And whether either side is justified or not, everyone seems to forget it’s the Japanese companies who have the final say in things. If they are unimpressed, you think we’re going to get more VoD titles and faster imports? I don’t think so. We haven’t earned it in their eyes. (I’m just extrapolating though. I want to know what they really think about this specifically.) And if bending to their rules is not worth it - then go without anime, like the true anti-RIAA people keep their hands off all RIAA music.
I think eventually change will come about properly in the Japanese anime industry. But as it goes with a number of “modern” trends, I think there will be a bit of a lag before it really hits full stride in Japan. Meanwhile, anyone want to make a doujinshi? :[
(/opinion)
September 7th, 2007 at 3:20 am
tomokoさんのいうとおりかもしれませんが、我々はアニメをなくしてもいきてゆける。アニメ会社のほうが、我々がいなきゃ生存できない。市場経済というのは、市場(人々）の要望に答えられる会社が生き残れ、栄えるものだ。
実は、どっちに’せよ、わたしには関係のないことだ。一人の人間（しかも学生）としては、アニメがなきゃ生活できないなんて情けなく思わない？わたしも一応アニメ好きですけど、それほどの感情や係りは持ってない。だってわたしは受験や部活のこともいっぱいでなかなか処理できないくらいだもの。
それはともかく、tomokoさんはガンダムに対しあれほどの感情を持つのは、ちょっと不思議と思うのですが、わからなくもない。（こちらは一応川澄綾子殿のファンですから）もっと日常生活を注意したらどうでしょうか。本を読んだり何かを学んだりしたら、もっと充実な人生を味わえると思います。ぜひ試してみてください。
September 7th, 2007 at 3:37 am
loltehnos san>
Wow, that’s somethings I wanted to point out and make you guys *realize* somehow. Thanks for giving us such interesting views.
Pear san>
いやあのね、だから、わたくしが言っているのは「無茶な要求をするファンよりも、アニメ会社をリスペクトして、作品を楽しみ続けたいファンの方が圧倒的多数ですよ」ということ。圧倒的多数すなわち、アニメ会社の利益だ。ファンサブは権利だ！とか言う人達は、自分の首を絞めている事に気がついた方が良い。アニメが無かったらファンサブも必要ないでしょ？市場原理主義だけでは、問題は解決しない。
引用＞本を読んだり何かを学んだりしたら、もっと充実な人生を味わえると思います。＜引用終わり
ガキが偉そうにほざくじゃないか、え？そんなもの言われるまでも無いわ！（爆笑）あなたより、間違いなく人生を謳歌してますよ。「ドラマ見せろ！」「アニメみせろ！」を超えて、アニメ会社とファンのもっとも理想的な関係を思索してるんですからね、こっちは。
September 7th, 2007 at 8:00 am
@tomoko> The Beatles are also my favorite band. Still I’m surprised that Japanese listen to English Oldies. Perhaps you might like other groups such as Bee Gees, Eagles etc. But seeing that there were good Japanese bands like Southern All Stars is proof that Japanese do listen to English songs. ^^
引用＞ガキが偉そうにほざくじゃないか、え？そんなもの言われるまでも無いわ！（爆笑）あなたより、間違いなく人生を謳歌してますよ。「ドラマ見せろ！」「アニメみせろ！」を超えて、アニメ会社とファンのもっとも理想的な関係を思索してるんですからね、こっちは＜引用終わり
Lol, well I agree with you that anime companies and fans should have a much better(idealistic) relationship. But since I’m a Singaporean, it’s hard for me to visualize something like that. So your ideals may not be easy for most Singaporeans since here, it is anime fans vs Odex (just a distributer of anime).
Not many of us know the Japanese language, so we are pretty much unaffected by whatever marketing the original anime companies do in Japan. But of course, you are talking about the fan situation in Japan right?
But I digress, what I think is that you should give the younger generation some leeway. Seeing that you are of an “older” generation, you should be more forgiving. But what do I know? I’m just a Singaporean guy in my mid twenties and I don’t know how you Japanese think ^^;
I hope you are not offended but the whole thing sounds to me like this:
Japanese Anime Kaisha = Tokugawa Shogunate
Japanese Anime Fans = Samurai
American Anime Fans = Blackships (黒船)
Younger Anime Fans who believe in Internet = 明治維新/富国強兵 ??
Lol lame joke I guess.
September 7th, 2007 at 11:34 am
miyamiya san>
Quote>>Still I’m surprised that Japanese listen to English OldiesSeeing that you are of an “older” generation, you should be more forgiving