Armageddon

Asteroid might hit Earth. Extinction Level Event?

LOS ANGELES, California (AP) — There’s a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.

There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.

You might think that a 1 in 300 chance is low… but take a look at the latest information from NASA. The table gives a probability of 1.6e-02, which translates to:

Impact Probability: 1.6e-02

1.600000000% chance of Earth impact

or

1 in 63 chance

or

98.40000000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth

Still quite low. But the thing is, the odds actually increased. Normally, when an asteroid is discovered to be on a possible collision course, the chances of impact decreases with each new observation made that allows for a more accurate calculation of trajectory.

I say we stay building a gigantic orbiting laser now. (or we could train a bunch of oilrig workers and get them to drill a hole to plant a nuclear device in the asteroid…)